JUSTICE, 3RD COURT OF APPEALS DISTRICT, PLACE 2

7Runoff
DemocratFinal Results·140,438 ballots cast
MAGGIE ELLIS
40.5%56,909
EDWARD SMITHI
31.5%44,192
MELISSA LORBER
28.0%39,337
Early vote vs Election Day

MAGGIE ELLIS gained 2.5 percentage points on Election Day.

MAGGIE ELLIS+2.5pp on E-day
Early 30,557 (53.7%)E-day 26,352 (46.3%)
EDWARD SMITH-1.7pp on E-day
Early 24,990 (56.5%)E-day 19,202 (43.5%)
MELISSA LORBER-0.9pp on E-day
Early 22,024 (56.0%)E-day 17,313 (44.0%)
Race totals140,438 ballots
Early 77,571 (55.2%)E-day 62,867 (44.8%)
Menard: no dataHale: no dataArmstrong: no dataCalhoun: no dataClay: no dataOrange: no dataGonzales: no dataFannin: no dataKerr: no dataRefugio: no dataJim Hogg: no dataDimmit: no dataNolan: no dataBrazos: no dataJefferson: no dataBell: 7,759 votes · MAGGIE ELLIS 46.4% (3,599) · MELISSA LORBER 31.3% (2,426) · EDWARD SMITH 22.3% (1,734) · 1,173 net for leaderBandera: no dataHidalgo: no dataSchleicher: 47 votes · MAGGIE ELLIS 42.6% (20) · MELISSA LORBER 25.5% (12) · EDWARD SMITH 31.9% (15) · 5 net for leaderGrayson: no dataCrosby: no dataDelta: no dataZavala: no dataRockwall: no dataEastland: no dataDeWitt: no dataAngelina: no dataMcLennan: no dataLamar: no dataLeon: no dataStonewall: no dataMcMullen: no dataSutton: no dataFort Bend: no dataParker: no dataKinney: no dataFayette: 437 votes · MAGGIE ELLIS 57.0% (249) · MELISSA LORBER 21.3% (93) · EDWARD SMITH 21.7% (95) · 154 net for leaderBriscoe: no dataHarrison: no dataReagan: no dataColeman: no dataOchiltree: no dataCrane: no dataWashington: no dataLynn: no dataMills: 39 votes · MAGGIE ELLIS 48.7% (19) · MELISSA LORBER 25.6% (10) · EDWARD SMITH 25.6% (10) · 9 net for leaderOldham: no dataSabine: no dataHopkins: no dataHouston: no dataBexar: no dataUpton: no dataErath: no dataRandall: no dataRusk: no dataCoryell: no dataComal: 4,094 votes · MAGGIE ELLIS 53.1% (2,173) · MELISSA LORBER 27.5% (1,126) · EDWARD SMITH 19.4% (795) · 1,047 net for leaderAransas: no dataJack: no dataHemphill: no dataShackelford: no dataSan Jacinto: no dataKendall: no dataWharton: no dataFloyd: no dataKarnes: no dataKaufman: no dataDuval: no dataJohnson: no dataFranklin: no dataEdwards: no dataWaller: no dataMaverick: no dataKleberg: no dataGaines: no dataMartin: no dataBowie: no dataAndrews: no dataPotter: no dataGarza: no dataCaldwell: 1,377 votes · MAGGIE ELLIS 43.9% (604) · MELISSA LORBER 33.8% (466) · EDWARD SMITH 22.3% (307) · 138 net for leaderParmer: no dataTitus: no dataTerry: no dataFoard: no dataReal: no dataCarson: no dataKnox: no dataHays: 13,448 votes · MAGGIE ELLIS 55.0% (7,393) · MELISSA LORBER 25.1% (3,369) · EDWARD SMITH 20.0% (2,686) · 4,024 net for leaderMedina: no dataMotley: no dataWichita: no dataMidland: no dataVictoria: no dataTyler: no dataFalls: no dataPresidio: no dataWillacy: no dataLubbock: no dataHenderson: no dataWalker: no dataGalveston: no dataHarris: no dataDawson: no dataPecos: no dataNacogdoches: no dataGuadalupe: no dataTarrant: no dataJackson: no dataSwisher: no dataSterling: 2 votes · MAGGIE ELLIS 100.0% (2) · 2 net for leaderWinkler: no dataFrio: no dataLipscomb: no dataCollingsworth: no dataColorado: no dataWise: no dataGlasscock: no dataShelby: no dataComanche: no dataBurnet: 1,131 votes · MAGGIE ELLIS 54.9% (621) · MELISSA LORBER 26.0% (294) · EDWARD SMITH 19.1% (216) · 327 net for leaderGray: no dataHudspeth: no dataCass: no dataEllis: no dataCooke: no dataWilliamson: 21,592 votes · MAGGIE ELLIS 48.5% (10,465) · MELISSA LORBER 29.5% (6,368) · EDWARD SMITH 22.0% (4,759) · 4,097 net for leaderCochran: no dataVan Zandt: no dataDonley: no dataJones: no dataGrimes: no dataIrion: 23 votes · MAGGIE ELLIS 60.9% (14) · MELISSA LORBER 21.7% (5) · EDWARD SMITH 17.4% (4) · 9 net for leaderNavarro: no dataBrooks: no dataDallam: no dataHunt: no dataMitchell: no dataWood: no dataChildress: no dataJeff Davis: no dataMontague: no dataBrown: no dataHaskell: no dataFisher: no dataConcho: 32 votes · MAGGIE ELLIS 43.8% (14) · MELISSA LORBER 40.6% (13) · EDWARD SMITH 15.6% (5) · 1 net for leaderCoke: 18 votes · MAGGIE ELLIS 66.7% (12) · MELISSA LORBER 11.1% (2) · EDWARD SMITH 22.2% (4) · 8 net for leaderPolk: no dataCottle: no dataYoung: no dataLee: 275 votes · MAGGIE ELLIS 53.1% (146) · MELISSA LORBER 25.5% (70) · EDWARD SMITH 21.5% (59) · 76 net for leaderCherokee: no dataHall: no dataHood: no dataArcher: no dataBaylor: no dataSan Augustine: no dataMadison: no dataMilam: 428 votes · MAGGIE ELLIS 41.8% (179) · MELISSA LORBER 29.4% (126) · EDWARD SMITH 28.7% (123) · 53 net for leaderReeves: no dataNueces: no dataCamp: no dataFreestone: no dataRunnels: 57 votes · MAGGIE ELLIS 47.4% (27) · MELISSA LORBER 19.3% (11) · EDWARD SMITH 33.3% (19) · 8 net for leaderTerrell: no dataDeaf Smith: no dataMarion: no dataLiberty: no dataJasper: no dataHansford: no dataChambers: no dataHardin: no dataCollin: no dataBrazoria: no dataThrockmorton: no dataBastrop: 3,262 votes · MAGGIE ELLIS 47.4% (1,546) · MELISSA LORBER 32.6% (1,062) · EDWARD SMITH 20.0% (654) · 484 net for leaderScurry: no dataEctor: no dataLimestone: no dataDenton: no dataRed River: no dataMatagorda: no dataHardeman: no dataPalo Pinto: no dataLive Oak: no dataSherman: no dataUvalde: no dataBailey: no dataCulberson: no dataAtascosa: no dataWilson: no dataStarr: no dataDallas: no dataKimble: no dataMcCulloch: 50 votes · MAGGIE ELLIS 56.0% (28) · MELISSA LORBER 26.0% (13) · EDWARD SMITH 18.0% (9) · 15 net for leaderCrockett: no dataHill: no dataKent: no dataEl Paso: no dataLoving: no dataDickens: no dataLa Salle: no dataLamb: no dataAustin: no dataHutchinson: no dataVal Verde: no dataSmith: no dataRobertson: no dataGillespie: no dataKing: no dataTom Green: 1,484 votes · MAGGIE ELLIS 42.7% (633) · MELISSA LORBER 32.1% (476) · EDWARD SMITH 25.3% (375) · 157 net for leaderYoakum: no dataSomervell: no dataKenedy: no dataBorden: no dataSan Saba: 32 votes · MAGGIE ELLIS 46.9% (15) · MELISSA LORBER 25.0% (8) · EDWARD SMITH 28.1% (9) · 6 net for leaderBurleson: no dataBee: no dataTrinity: no dataCastro: no dataBrewster: no dataGregg: no dataWard: no dataWilbarger: no dataHamilton: no dataStephens: no dataLavaca: no dataBosque: no dataGoliad: no dataRoberts: no dataCallahan: no dataRains: no dataMorris: no dataLampasas: 409 votes · MAGGIE ELLIS 56.0% (229) · MELISSA LORBER 24.9% (102) · EDWARD SMITH 19.1% (78) · 127 net for leaderUpshur: no dataWheeler: no dataSan Patricio: no dataMoore: no dataWebb: no dataBlanco: 454 votes · MAGGIE ELLIS 61.2% (278) · MELISSA LORBER 17.4% (79) · EDWARD SMITH 21.4% (97) · 181 net for leaderNewton: no dataHockley: no dataPanola: no dataAnderson: no dataCameron: no dataMontgomery: no dataLlano: 496 votes · MAGGIE ELLIS 49.4% (245) · MELISSA LORBER 32.1% (159) · EDWARD SMITH 18.5% (92) · 86 net for leaderMason: no dataTaylor: no dataHartley: no dataJim Wells: no dataZapata: no dataTravis: 83,492 votes · MAGGIE ELLIS 34.0% (28,398) · MELISSA LORBER 27.6% (23,047) · EDWARD SMITH 38.4% (32,047) · 3,649 net for leaderHoward: no dataEl PasoAmarilloLubbockOdessaSan AngeloDallasTylerAustinHoustonSan AntonioCorpus ChristiMcAllen
Hue = county leader · Saturation = √(net margin / 90th-pctile county margin), floored
Noted (7)
  • Swing outlier2.1
    BELL
    MAGGIE ELLIS shifted -0.3pp early→E-day vs +4.0pp statewide (3.4σ outlier)
  • Landslide0.6
    BLANCO
    MAGGIE ELLIS won by +39.9pp vs statewide +9.1pp
  • Landslide0.1
    COKE
    MAGGIE ELLIS won by +44.4pp vs statewide +9.1pp
  • Landslide0.1
    IRION
    MAGGIE ELLIS won by +39.1pp vs statewide +9.1pp
  • Landslide0.1
    STERLING
    MAGGIE ELLIS won by +100.0pp vs statewide +9.1pp
  • Mid-race flip0.0
    SCHLEICHER
    MAGGIE ELLIS led early (46.2%); MELISSA LORBER won E-day (42.9%)
  • Mid-race flip0.0
    CONCHO
    MELISSA LORBER led early (50.0%); MAGGIE ELLIS won E-day (50.0%)

County results — early vs Election Day

  • BASTROP3,262 total
    ELLISEarly 958 · E-day 5881,546
    SMITHEarly 397 · E-day 257654
    LORBEREarly 662 · E-day 4001,062
  • BELL7,759 total
    ELLISEarly 1,972 · E-day 1,6273,599
    SMITHEarly 922 · E-day 8121,734
    LORBEREarly 1,343 · E-day 1,0832,426
  • BLANCO454 total
    ELLISEarly 164 · E-day 114278
    SMITHEarly 50 · E-day 4797
    LORBEREarly 39 · E-day 4079
  • BURNET1,131 total
    ELLISEarly 418 · E-day 203621
    SMITHEarly 167 · E-day 49216
    LORBEREarly 201 · E-day 93294
  • CALDWELL1,377 total
    ELLISEarly 370 · E-day 234604
    SMITHEarly 193 · E-day 114307
    LORBEREarly 278 · E-day 188466
  • COKE18 total
    ELLISEarly 8 · E-day 412
    SMITHEarly 3 · E-day 14
    LORBEREarly 1 · E-day 12
  • COMAL4,094 total
    ELLISEarly 1,278 · E-day 8952,173
    SMITHEarly 473 · E-day 322795
    LORBEREarly 650 · E-day 4761,126
  • CONCHO32 total
    ELLISEarly 3 · E-day 1114
    SMITHEarly 2 · E-day 35
    LORBEREarly 5 · E-day 813
  • FAYETTE437 total
    ELLISEarly 128 · E-day 121249
    SMITHEarly 42 · E-day 5395
    LORBEREarly 43 · E-day 5093
  • HAYS13,448 total
    ELLISEarly 4,375 · E-day 3,0187,393
    SMITHEarly 1,749 · E-day 9372,686
    LORBEREarly 2,018 · E-day 1,3513,369
  • IRION23 total
    ELLISEarly 7 · E-day 714
    SMITHEarly 1 · E-day 34
    LORBEREarly 3 · E-day 25
  • LAMPASAS409 total
    ELLISEarly 113 · E-day 116229
    SMITHEarly 47 · E-day 3178
    LORBEREarly 53 · E-day 49102
  • LEE275 total
    ELLISEarly 80 · E-day 66146
    SMITHEarly 31 · E-day 2859
    LORBEREarly 27 · E-day 4370
  • LLANO496 total
    ELLISEarly 168 · E-day 77245
    SMITHEarly 61 · E-day 3192
    LORBEREarly 92 · E-day 67159
  • MCCULLOCH50 total
    ELLISEarly 17 · E-day 1128
    SMITHEarly 2 · E-day 79
    LORBEREarly 5 · E-day 813
  • MILAM428 total
    ELLISEarly 99 · E-day 80179
    SMITHEarly 64 · E-day 59123
    LORBEREarly 58 · E-day 68126
  • MILLS39 total
    ELLISEarly 11 · E-day 819
    SMITHEarly 6 · E-day 410
    LORBEREarly 4 · E-day 610
  • RUNNELS57 total
    ELLISEarly 12 · E-day 1527
    SMITHEarly 5 · E-day 1419
    LORBEREarly 4 · E-day 711
  • SAN SABA32 total
    ELLISEarly 5 · E-day 1015
    SMITHEarly 4 · E-day 59
    LORBEREarly 3 · E-day 58
  • SCHLEICHER47 total
    ELLISEarly 12 · E-day 820
    SMITHEarly 11 · E-day 415
    LORBEREarly 3 · E-day 912
  • STERLING2 total
    ELLISEarly 1 · E-day 12
    SMITHEarly 0 · E-day 00
    LORBEREarly 0 · E-day 00
  • TOM GREEN1,484 total
    ELLISEarly 333 · E-day 300633
    SMITHEarly 204 · E-day 171375
    LORBEREarly 225 · E-day 251476
  • TRAVIS83,492 total
    ELLISEarly 14,102 · E-day 14,29628,398
    SMITHEarly 17,706 · E-day 14,34132,047
    LORBEREarly 12,497 · E-day 10,55023,047
  • WILLIAMSON21,592 total
    ELLISEarly 5,923 · E-day 4,54210,465
    SMITHEarly 2,850 · E-day 1,9094,759
    LORBEREarly 3,810 · E-day 2,5586,368