JUSTICE, 4TH COURT OF APPEALS DISTRICT, PLACE 2

23
DemocratFinal Results·116,973 ballots cast
VELIA J. MEZA
52.3%61,117
BETH WATKINSI
47.8%55,856
Early vote vs Election Day

VELIA J. MEZA gained 4.5 percentage points on Election Day.

VELIA J. MEZA+4.5pp on E-day
Early 38,102 (62.3%)E-day 23,015 (37.7%)
BETH WATKINS-4.5pp on E-day
Early 37,110 (66.4%)E-day 18,746 (33.6%)
Race totals116,973 ballots
Early 75,212 (64.3%)E-day 41,761 (35.7%)
Menard: 19 votes · VELIA J. MEZA 42.1% (8) · BETH WATKINS 57.9% (11) · 3 net for leaderHale: no dataArmstrong: no dataCalhoun: no dataClay: no dataOrange: no dataGonzales: no dataFannin: no dataKerr: 1,147 votes · VELIA J. MEZA 22.8% (262) · BETH WATKINS 77.2% (885) · 623 net for leaderRefugio: no dataJim Hogg: 864 votes · VELIA J. MEZA 66.7% (576) · BETH WATKINS 33.3% (288) · 288 net for leaderDimmit: 1,574 votes · VELIA J. MEZA 71.9% (1,131) · BETH WATKINS 28.1% (443) · 688 net for leaderNolan: no dataBrazos: no dataJefferson: no dataBell: no dataBandera: 449 votes · VELIA J. MEZA 27.2% (122) · BETH WATKINS 72.8% (327) · 205 net for leaderHidalgo: no dataSchleicher: no dataGrayson: no dataCrosby: no dataDelta: no dataZavala: 1,487 votes · VELIA J. MEZA 69.5% (1,034) · BETH WATKINS 30.5% (453) · 581 net for leaderRockwall: no dataEastland: no dataDeWitt: no dataAngelina: no dataMcLennan: no dataLamar: no dataLeon: no dataStonewall: no dataMcMullen: 8 votes · VELIA J. MEZA 50.0% (4) · BETH WATKINS 50.0% (4) · 0 net for leaderSutton: 35 votes · VELIA J. MEZA 51.4% (18) · BETH WATKINS 48.6% (17) · 1 net for leaderFort Bend: no dataParker: no dataKinney: 89 votes · VELIA J. MEZA 51.7% (46) · BETH WATKINS 48.3% (43) · 3 net for leaderFayette: no dataBriscoe: no dataHarrison: no dataReagan: no dataColeman: no dataOchiltree: no dataCrane: no dataWashington: no dataLynn: no dataMills: no dataOldham: no dataSabine: no dataHopkins: no dataHouston: no dataBexar: 69,174 votes · VELIA J. MEZA 46.1% (31,887) · BETH WATKINS 53.9% (37,287) · 5,400 net for leaderUpton: no dataErath: no dataRandall: no dataRusk: no dataCoryell: no dataComal: no dataAransas: no dataJack: no dataHemphill: no dataShackelford: no dataSan Jacinto: no dataKendall: 935 votes · VELIA J. MEZA 29.5% (276) · BETH WATKINS 70.5% (659) · 383 net for leaderWharton: no dataFloyd: no dataKarnes: 188 votes · VELIA J. MEZA 65.4% (123) · BETH WATKINS 34.6% (65) · 58 net for leaderKaufman: no dataDuval: 1,216 votes · VELIA J. MEZA 58.7% (714) · BETH WATKINS 41.3% (502) · 212 net for leaderJohnson: no dataFranklin: no dataEdwards: 18 votes · VELIA J. MEZA 55.6% (10) · BETH WATKINS 44.4% (8) · 2 net for leaderWaller: no dataMaverick: 4,297 votes · VELIA J. MEZA 55.0% (2,362) · BETH WATKINS 45.0% (1,935) · 427 net for leaderKleberg: no dataGaines: no dataMartin: no dataBowie: no dataAndrews: no dataPotter: no dataGarza: no dataCaldwell: no dataParmer: no dataTitus: no dataTerry: no dataFoard: no dataReal: 77 votes · VELIA J. MEZA 27.3% (21) · BETH WATKINS 72.7% (56) · 35 net for leaderCarson: no dataKnox: no dataHays: no dataMedina: 1,030 votes · VELIA J. MEZA 49.8% (513) · BETH WATKINS 50.2% (517) · 4 net for leaderMotley: no dataWichita: no dataMidland: no dataVictoria: no dataTyler: no dataFalls: no dataPresidio: no dataWillacy: no dataLubbock: no dataHenderson: no dataWalker: no dataGalveston: no dataHarris: no dataDawson: no dataPecos: no dataNacogdoches: no dataGuadalupe: 4,403 votes · VELIA J. MEZA 36.2% (1,594) · BETH WATKINS 63.8% (2,809) · 1,215 net for leaderTarrant: no dataJackson: no dataSwisher: no dataSterling: no dataWinkler: no dataFrio: 1,165 votes · VELIA J. MEZA 70.7% (824) · BETH WATKINS 29.3% (341) · 483 net for leaderLipscomb: no dataCollingsworth: no dataColorado: no dataWise: no dataGlasscock: no dataShelby: no dataComanche: no dataBurnet: no dataGray: no dataHudspeth: no dataCass: no dataEllis: no dataCooke: no dataWilliamson: no dataCochran: no dataVan Zandt: no dataDonley: no dataJones: no dataGrimes: no dataIrion: no dataNavarro: no dataBrooks: 933 votes · VELIA J. MEZA 70.1% (654) · BETH WATKINS 29.9% (279) · 375 net for leaderDallam: no dataHunt: no dataMitchell: no dataWood: no dataChildress: no dataJeff Davis: no dataMontague: no dataBrown: no dataHaskell: no dataFisher: no dataConcho: no dataCoke: no dataPolk: no dataCottle: no dataYoung: no dataLee: no dataCherokee: no dataHall: no dataHood: no dataArcher: no dataBaylor: no dataSan Augustine: no dataMadison: no dataMilam: no dataReeves: no dataNueces: no dataCamp: no dataFreestone: no dataRunnels: no dataTerrell: no dataDeaf Smith: no dataMarion: no dataLiberty: no dataJasper: no dataHansford: no dataChambers: no dataHardin: no dataCollin: no dataBrazoria: no dataThrockmorton: no dataBastrop: no dataScurry: no dataEctor: no dataLimestone: no dataDenton: no dataRed River: no dataMatagorda: no dataHardeman: no dataPalo Pinto: no dataLive Oak: no dataSherman: no dataUvalde: 769 votes · VELIA J. MEZA 71.3% (548) · BETH WATKINS 28.7% (221) · 327 net for leaderBailey: no dataCulberson: no dataAtascosa: 1,024 votes · VELIA J. MEZA 61.4% (629) · BETH WATKINS 38.6% (395) · 234 net for leaderWilson: 953 votes · VELIA J. MEZA 50.9% (485) · BETH WATKINS 49.1% (468) · 17 net for leaderStarr: 1,476 votes · VELIA J. MEZA 100.0% (1,476) · 1,476 net for leaderDallas: no dataKimble: 31 votes · VELIA J. MEZA 29.0% (9) · BETH WATKINS 71.0% (22) · 13 net for leaderMcCulloch: no dataCrockett: no dataHill: no dataKent: no dataEl Paso: no dataLoving: no dataDickens: no dataLa Salle: no dataLamb: no dataAustin: no dataHutchinson: no dataVal Verde: 1,460 votes · VELIA J. MEZA 65.8% (961) · BETH WATKINS 34.2% (499) · 462 net for leaderSmith: no dataRobertson: no dataGillespie: 675 votes · VELIA J. MEZA 23.0% (155) · BETH WATKINS 77.0% (520) · 365 net for leaderKing: no dataTom Green: no dataYoakum: no dataSomervell: no dataKenedy: no dataBorden: no dataSan Saba: no dataBurleson: no dataBee: no dataTrinity: no dataCastro: no dataBrewster: no dataGregg: no dataWard: no dataWilbarger: no dataHamilton: no dataStephens: no dataLavaca: no dataBosque: no dataGoliad: no dataRoberts: no dataCallahan: no dataRains: no dataMorris: no dataLampasas: no dataUpshur: no dataWheeler: no dataSan Patricio: no dataMoore: no dataWebb: 15,760 votes · VELIA J. MEZA 69.8% (10,997) · BETH WATKINS 30.2% (4,763) · 6,234 net for leaderBlanco: no dataNewton: no dataHockley: no dataPanola: no dataAnderson: no dataCameron: no dataMontgomery: no dataLlano: no dataMason: 74 votes · VELIA J. MEZA 31.1% (23) · BETH WATKINS 68.9% (51) · 28 net for leaderTaylor: no dataHartley: no dataJim Wells: 2,812 votes · VELIA J. MEZA 65.9% (1,853) · BETH WATKINS 34.1% (959) · 894 net for leaderZapata: 2,040 votes · VELIA J. MEZA 65.4% (1,335) · BETH WATKINS 34.6% (705) · 630 net for leaderTravis: no dataHoward: no dataEl PasoAmarilloLubbockOdessaSan AngeloDallasTylerAustinHoustonSan AntonioCorpus ChristiMcAllen
Hue = county leader · Saturation = √(net margin / 90th-pctile county margin), floored
Noted (23)
  • Landslide4.1
    WEBB
    VELIA J. MEZA won by +39.6pp vs statewide +4.5pp
  • Landslide3.4
    STARR
    VELIA J. MEZA won by +100.0pp vs statewide +4.5pp
  • Underperform2.5
    GUADALUPE
    VELIA J. MEZA's margin -27.6pp vs statewide +4.5pp
  • Underperform2.3
    KERR
    VELIA J. MEZA's margin -54.3pp vs statewide +4.5pp
  • Mid-race flip1.8
    BEXAR
    BETH WATKINS led early (56.3%); VELIA J. MEZA won E-day (50.2%)
  • Swing outlier1.8
    WEBB
    VELIA J. MEZA shifted +1.9pp early→E-day vs +5.7pp statewide (2.1σ outlier)
  • Underperform1.8
    GILLESPIE
    VELIA J. MEZA's margin -54.1pp vs statewide +4.5pp
  • Underperform1.6
    KENDALL
    VELIA J. MEZA's margin -41.0pp vs statewide +4.5pp
  • Landslide1.4
    DIMMIT
    VELIA J. MEZA won by +43.7pp vs statewide +4.5pp
  • Landslide1.2
    ZAVALA
    VELIA J. MEZA won by +39.1pp vs statewide +4.5pp
  • Underperform1.2
    BANDERA
    VELIA J. MEZA's margin -45.7pp vs statewide +4.5pp
  • Landslide1.2
    FRIO
    VELIA J. MEZA won by +41.5pp vs statewide +4.5pp
  • Landslide1.0
    BROOKS
    VELIA J. MEZA won by +40.2pp vs statewide +4.5pp
  • Landslide1.0
    UVALDE
    VELIA J. MEZA won by +42.5pp vs statewide +4.5pp
  • Underperform0.5
    REAL
    VELIA J. MEZA's margin -45.5pp vs statewide +4.5pp
  • Underperform0.4
    MASON
    VELIA J. MEZA's margin -37.8pp vs statewide +4.5pp
  • Underperform0.3
    KIMBLE
    VELIA J. MEZA's margin -41.9pp vs statewide +4.5pp
  • Mid-race flip0.2
    WILSON
    BETH WATKINS led early (51.4%); VELIA J. MEZA won E-day (54.7%)
  • Underperform0.1
    MENARD
    VELIA J. MEZA's margin -15.8pp vs statewide +4.5pp
  • Mid-race flip0.1
    KINNEY
    BETH WATKINS led early (55.1%); VELIA J. MEZA won E-day (60.0%)
  • Mid-race flip0.1
    EDWARDS
    VELIA J. MEZA led early (64.3%); BETH WATKINS won E-day (75.0%)
  • Mid-race flip0.0
    SUTTON
    VELIA J. MEZA led early (62.5%); BETH WATKINS won E-day (57.9%)
  • Mid-race flip0.0
    MEDINA
    BETH WATKINS led early (52.7%); VELIA J. MEZA won E-day (53.0%)

County results — early vs Election Day

  • ATASCOSA1,024 total
    MEZAEarly 301 · E-day 328629
    WATKINSEarly 245 · E-day 150395
  • BANDERA449 total
    MEZAEarly 65 · E-day 57122
    WATKINSEarly 198 · E-day 129327
  • BEXAR69,174 total
    MEZAEarly 19,025 · E-day 12,86231,887
    WATKINSEarly 24,528 · E-day 12,75937,287
  • BROOKS933 total
    MEZAEarly 363 · E-day 291654
    WATKINSEarly 181 · E-day 98279
  • DIMMIT1,574 total
    MEZAEarly 656 · E-day 4751,131
    WATKINSEarly 265 · E-day 178443
  • DUVAL1,216 total
    MEZAEarly 431 · E-day 283714
    WATKINSEarly 327 · E-day 175502
  • EDWARDS18 total
    MEZAEarly 9 · E-day 110
    WATKINSEarly 5 · E-day 38
  • FRIO1,165 total
    MEZAEarly 426 · E-day 398824
    WATKINSEarly 193 · E-day 148341
  • GILLESPIE675 total
    MEZAEarly 80 · E-day 75155
    WATKINSEarly 373 · E-day 147520
  • GUADALUPE4,403 total
    MEZAEarly 797 · E-day 7971,594
    WATKINSEarly 1,732 · E-day 1,0772,809
  • JIM HOGG864 total
    MEZAEarly 367 · E-day 209576
    WATKINSEarly 199 · E-day 89288
  • JIM WELLS2,812 total
    MEZAEarly 1,103 · E-day 7501,853
    WATKINSEarly 606 · E-day 353959
  • KARNES188 total
    MEZAEarly 64 · E-day 59123
    WATKINSEarly 44 · E-day 2165
  • KENDALL935 total
    MEZAEarly 139 · E-day 137276
    WATKINSEarly 418 · E-day 241659
  • KERR1,147 total
    MEZAEarly 151 · E-day 111262
    WATKINSEarly 581 · E-day 304885
  • KIMBLE31 total
    MEZAEarly 2 · E-day 79
    WATKINSEarly 14 · E-day 822
  • KINNEY89 total
    MEZAEarly 22 · E-day 2446
    WATKINSEarly 27 · E-day 1643
  • LASALLE791 total
    MEZAEarly 292 · E-day 175467
    WATKINSEarly 205 · E-day 119324
  • MASON74 total
    MEZAEarly 3 · E-day 2023
    WATKINSEarly 25 · E-day 2651
  • MAVERICK4,297 total
    MEZAEarly 1,623 · E-day 7392,362
    WATKINSEarly 1,431 · E-day 5041,935
  • MCMULLEN8 total
    MEZAEarly 0 · E-day 44
    WATKINSEarly 2 · E-day 24
  • MEDINA1,030 total
    MEZAEarly 276 · E-day 237513
    WATKINSEarly 307 · E-day 210517
  • MENARD19 total
    MEZAEarly 7 · E-day 18
    WATKINSEarly 8 · E-day 311
  • REAL77 total
    MEZAEarly 5 · E-day 1621
    WATKINSEarly 22 · E-day 3456
  • STARR1,476 total
    MEZAEarly 1,083 · E-day 3931,476
    WATKINSEarly 0 · E-day 00
  • SUTTON35 total
    MEZAEarly 10 · E-day 818
    WATKINSEarly 6 · E-day 1117
  • UVALDE769 total
    MEZAEarly 195 · E-day 353548
    WATKINSEarly 85 · E-day 136221
  • VAL VERDE1,460 total
    MEZAEarly 632 · E-day 329961
    WATKINSEarly 343 · E-day 156499
  • WEBB15,760 total
    MEZAEarly 8,045 · E-day 2,95210,997
    WATKINSEarly 3,568 · E-day 1,1954,763
  • WILSON953 total
    MEZAEarly 289 · E-day 196485
    WATKINSEarly 306 · E-day 162468
  • ZAPATA2,040 total
    MEZAEarly 931 · E-day 4041,335
    WATKINSEarly 536 · E-day 169705
  • ZAVALA1,487 total
    MEZAEarly 710 · E-day 3241,034
    WATKINSEarly 330 · E-day 123453