JUSTICE, 14TH COURT OF APPEALS DISTRICT, PLACE 4

8
DemocratFinal Results·200,622 ballots cast
CHARLES SPAINI
55.1%110,469
DEREK OBIALO
44.9%90,153
Early vote vs Election Day

DEREK OBIALO gained 8.2 percentage points on Election Day.

CHARLES SPAIN-8.2pp on E-day
Early 71,286 (64.5%)E-day 39,183 (35.5%)
DEREK OBIALO+8.2pp on E-day
Early 51,104 (56.7%)E-day 39,049 (43.3%)
Race totals200,622 ballots
Early 122,390 (61.0%)E-day 78,232 (39.0%)
Menard: no dataHale: no dataArmstrong: no dataCalhoun: no dataClay: no dataOrange: no dataGonzales: no dataFannin: no dataKerr: no dataRefugio: no dataJim Hogg: no dataDimmit: no dataNolan: no dataBrazos: no dataJefferson: no dataBell: no dataBandera: no dataHidalgo: no dataSchleicher: no dataGrayson: no dataCrosby: no dataDelta: no dataZavala: no dataRockwall: no dataEastland: no dataDeWitt: no dataAngelina: no dataMcLennan: no dataLamar: no dataLeon: no dataStonewall: no dataMcMullen: no dataSutton: no dataFort Bend: 32,319 votes · CHARLES SPAIN 52.9% (17,108) · DEREK OBIALO 47.1% (15,211) · 1,897 net for leaderParker: no dataKinney: no dataFayette: no dataBriscoe: no dataHarrison: no dataReagan: no dataColeman: no dataOchiltree: no dataCrane: no dataWashington: 671 votes · CHARLES SPAIN 47.1% (316) · DEREK OBIALO 52.9% (355) · 39 net for leaderLynn: no dataMills: no dataOldham: no dataSabine: no dataHopkins: no dataHouston: no dataBexar: no dataUpton: no dataErath: no dataRandall: no dataRusk: no dataCoryell: no dataComal: no dataAransas: no dataJack: no dataHemphill: no dataShackelford: no dataSan Jacinto: no dataKendall: no dataWharton: no dataFloyd: no dataKarnes: no dataKaufman: no dataDuval: no dataJohnson: no dataFranklin: no dataEdwards: no dataWaller: 1,132 votes · CHARLES SPAIN 43.9% (497) · DEREK OBIALO 56.1% (635) · 138 net for leaderMaverick: no dataKleberg: no dataGaines: no dataMartin: no dataBowie: no dataAndrews: no dataPotter: no dataGarza: no dataCaldwell: no dataParmer: no dataTitus: no dataTerry: no dataFoard: no dataReal: no dataCarson: no dataKnox: no dataHays: no dataMedina: no dataMotley: no dataWichita: no dataMidland: no dataVictoria: no dataTyler: no dataFalls: no dataPresidio: no dataWillacy: no dataLubbock: no dataHenderson: no dataWalker: no dataGalveston: 8,551 votes · CHARLES SPAIN 49.0% (4,194) · DEREK OBIALO 51.0% (4,357) · 163 net for leaderHarris: 146,456 votes · CHARLES SPAIN 56.8% (83,158) · DEREK OBIALO 43.2% (63,298) · 19,860 net for leaderDawson: no dataPecos: no dataNacogdoches: no dataGuadalupe: no dataTarrant: no dataJackson: no dataSwisher: no dataSterling: no dataWinkler: no dataFrio: no dataLipscomb: no dataCollingsworth: no dataColorado: 278 votes · CHARLES SPAIN 65.1% (181) · DEREK OBIALO 34.9% (97) · 84 net for leaderWise: no dataGlasscock: no dataShelby: no dataComanche: no dataBurnet: no dataGray: no dataHudspeth: no dataCass: no dataEllis: no dataCooke: no dataWilliamson: no dataCochran: no dataVan Zandt: no dataDonley: no dataJones: no dataGrimes: 469 votes · CHARLES SPAIN 54.6% (256) · DEREK OBIALO 45.4% (213) · 43 net for leaderIrion: no dataNavarro: no dataBrooks: no dataDallam: no dataHunt: no dataMitchell: no dataWood: no dataChildress: no dataJeff Davis: no dataMontague: no dataBrown: no dataHaskell: no dataFisher: no dataConcho: no dataCoke: no dataPolk: no dataCottle: no dataYoung: no dataLee: no dataCherokee: no dataHall: no dataHood: no dataArcher: no dataBaylor: no dataSan Augustine: no dataMadison: no dataMilam: no dataReeves: no dataNueces: no dataCamp: no dataFreestone: no dataRunnels: no dataTerrell: no dataDeaf Smith: no dataMarion: no dataLiberty: no dataJasper: no dataHansford: no dataChambers: 478 votes · CHARLES SPAIN 59.2% (283) · DEREK OBIALO 40.8% (195) · 88 net for leaderHardin: no dataCollin: no dataBrazoria: 9,859 votes · CHARLES SPAIN 43.4% (4,278) · DEREK OBIALO 56.6% (5,581) · 1,303 net for leaderThrockmorton: no dataBastrop: no dataScurry: no dataEctor: no dataLimestone: no dataDenton: no dataRed River: no dataMatagorda: no dataHardeman: no dataPalo Pinto: no dataLive Oak: no dataSherman: no dataUvalde: no dataBailey: no dataCulberson: no dataAtascosa: no dataWilson: no dataStarr: no dataDallas: no dataKimble: no dataMcCulloch: no dataCrockett: no dataHill: no dataKent: no dataEl Paso: no dataLoving: no dataDickens: no dataLa Salle: no dataLamb: no dataAustin: 409 votes · CHARLES SPAIN 48.4% (198) · DEREK OBIALO 51.6% (211) · 13 net for leaderHutchinson: no dataVal Verde: no dataSmith: no dataRobertson: no dataGillespie: no dataKing: no dataTom Green: no dataYoakum: no dataSomervell: no dataKenedy: no dataBorden: no dataSan Saba: no dataBurleson: no dataBee: no dataTrinity: no dataCastro: no dataBrewster: no dataGregg: no dataWard: no dataWilbarger: no dataHamilton: no dataStephens: no dataLavaca: no dataBosque: no dataGoliad: no dataRoberts: no dataCallahan: no dataRains: no dataMorris: no dataLampasas: no dataUpshur: no dataWheeler: no dataSan Patricio: no dataMoore: no dataWebb: no dataBlanco: no dataNewton: no dataHockley: no dataPanola: no dataAnderson: no dataCameron: no dataMontgomery: no dataLlano: no dataMason: no dataTaylor: no dataHartley: no dataJim Wells: no dataZapata: no dataTravis: no dataHoward: no dataEl PasoAmarilloLubbockOdessaSan AngeloDallasTylerAustinHoustonSan AntonioCorpus ChristiMcAllen
Hue = county leader · Saturation = √(net margin / 90th-pctile county margin), floored
Noted (8)
  • Underperform2.7
    BRAZORIA
    CHARLES SPAIN's margin -13.2pp vs statewide +10.1pp
  • Swing outlier2.7
    FORT BEND
    CHARLES SPAIN shifted -5.3pp early→E-day vs -8.2pp statewide (2.2σ outlier)
  • Mid-race flip1.3
    FORT BEND
    CHARLES SPAIN led early (54.8%); DEREK OBIALO won E-day (50.5%)
  • Underperform0.9
    WALLER
    CHARLES SPAIN's margin -12.2pp vs statewide +10.1pp
  • Mid-race flip0.6
    GALVESTON
    CHARLES SPAIN led early (52.0%); DEREK OBIALO won E-day (55.6%)
  • Underperform0.5
    WASHINGTON
    CHARLES SPAIN's margin -5.8pp vs statewide +10.1pp
  • Mid-race flip0.4
    WASHINGTON
    CHARLES SPAIN led early (52.0%); DEREK OBIALO won E-day (61.3%)
  • Mid-race flip0.1
    AUSTIN
    CHARLES SPAIN led early (53.2%); DEREK OBIALO won E-day (55.7%)

County results — early vs Election Day

  • AUSTIN409 total
    SPAINEarly 100 · E-day 98198
    OBIALOEarly 88 · E-day 123211
  • BRAZORIA9,859 total
    SPAINEarly 2,700 · E-day 1,5784,278
    OBIALOEarly 3,040 · E-day 2,5415,581
  • CHAMBERS478 total
    SPAINEarly 163 · E-day 120283
    OBIALOEarly 102 · E-day 93195
  • COLORADO278 total
    SPAINEarly 113 · E-day 68181
    OBIALOEarly 47 · E-day 5097
  • FORT BEND32,319 total
    SPAINEarly 11,504 · E-day 5,60417,108
    OBIALOEarly 9,486 · E-day 5,72515,211
  • GALVESTON8,551 total
    SPAINEarly 2,720 · E-day 1,4744,194
    OBIALOEarly 2,511 · E-day 1,8464,357
  • GRIMES469 total
    SPAINEarly 149 · E-day 107256
    OBIALOEarly 123 · E-day 90213
  • HARRIS146,456 total
    SPAINEarly 53,328 · E-day 29,83083,158
    OBIALOEarly 35,162 · E-day 28,13663,298
  • WALLER1,132 total
    SPAINEarly 289 · E-day 208497
    OBIALOEarly 342 · E-day 293635
  • WASHINGTON671 total
    SPAINEarly 220 · E-day 96316
    OBIALOEarly 203 · E-day 152355