U. S. REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 15

7
Final Results·223,769 ballots cast
MONICA DE LA CRUZI
57.1%127,804
MICHELLE VALLEJO
42.9%95,965
Early vote vs Election Day

MONICA DE LA CRUZ gained 0.3 percentage points on Election Day.

MONICA DE LA CRUZ+0.3pp on E-day
Early 97,619 (76.4%)E-day 30,185 (23.6%)
MICHELLE VALLEJO-0.3pp on E-day
Early 73,524 (76.6%)E-day 22,441 (23.4%)
Race totals223,769 ballots
Early 171,143 (76.5%)E-day 52,626 (23.5%)
Menard: no dataHale: no dataArmstrong: no dataCalhoun: no dataClay: no dataOrange: no dataGonzales: no dataFannin: no dataKerr: no dataRefugio: no dataJim Hogg: no dataDimmit: no dataNolan: no dataBrazos: no dataJefferson: no dataBell: no dataBandera: no dataHidalgo: 140,909 votes · MONICA DE LA CRUZ 48.6% (68,443) · MICHELLE VALLEJO 51.4% (72,466) · 4,023 net for leaderSchleicher: no dataGrayson: no dataCrosby: no dataDelta: no dataZavala: no dataRockwall: no dataEastland: no dataDeWitt: no dataAngelina: no dataMcLennan: no dataLamar: no dataLeon: no dataStonewall: no dataMcMullen: no dataSutton: no dataFort Bend: no dataParker: no dataKinney: no dataFayette: no dataBriscoe: no dataHarrison: no dataReagan: no dataColeman: no dataOchiltree: no dataCrane: no dataWashington: no dataLynn: no dataMills: no dataOldham: no dataSabine: no dataHopkins: no dataHouston: no dataBexar: no dataUpton: no dataErath: no dataRandall: no dataRusk: no dataCoryell: no dataComal: no dataAransas: no dataJack: no dataHemphill: no dataShackelford: no dataSan Jacinto: no dataKendall: no dataWharton: no dataFloyd: no dataKarnes: 4,959 votes · MONICA DE LA CRUZ 79.6% (3,945) · MICHELLE VALLEJO 20.4% (1,014) · 2,931 net for leaderKaufman: no dataDuval: no dataJohnson: no dataFranklin: no dataEdwards: no dataWaller: no dataMaverick: no dataKleberg: no dataGaines: no dataMartin: no dataBowie: no dataAndrews: no dataPotter: no dataGarza: no dataCaldwell: no dataParmer: no dataTitus: no dataTerry: no dataFoard: no dataReal: no dataCarson: no dataKnox: no dataHays: no dataMedina: no dataMotley: no dataWichita: no dataMidland: no dataVictoria: no dataTyler: no dataFalls: no dataPresidio: no dataWillacy: no dataLubbock: no dataHenderson: no dataWalker: no dataGalveston: no dataHarris: no dataDawson: no dataPecos: no dataNacogdoches: no dataGuadalupe: 31,176 votes · MONICA DE LA CRUZ 71.1% (22,168) · MICHELLE VALLEJO 28.9% (9,008) · 13,160 net for leaderTarrant: no dataJackson: no dataSwisher: no dataSterling: no dataWinkler: no dataFrio: no dataLipscomb: no dataCollingsworth: no dataColorado: no dataWise: no dataGlasscock: no dataShelby: no dataComanche: no dataBurnet: no dataGray: no dataHudspeth: no dataCass: no dataEllis: no dataCooke: no dataWilliamson: no dataCochran: no dataVan Zandt: no dataDonley: no dataJones: no dataGrimes: no dataIrion: no dataNavarro: no dataBrooks: 2,272 votes · MONICA DE LA CRUZ 43.2% (982) · MICHELLE VALLEJO 56.8% (1,290) · 308 net for leaderDallam: no dataHunt: no dataMitchell: no dataWood: no dataChildress: no dataJeff Davis: no dataMontague: no dataBrown: no dataHaskell: no dataFisher: no dataConcho: no dataCoke: no dataPolk: no dataCottle: no dataYoung: no dataLee: no dataCherokee: no dataHall: no dataHood: no dataArcher: no dataBaylor: no dataSan Augustine: no dataMadison: no dataMilam: no dataReeves: no dataNueces: no dataCamp: no dataFreestone: no dataRunnels: no dataTerrell: no dataDeaf Smith: no dataMarion: no dataLiberty: no dataJasper: no dataHansford: no dataChambers: no dataHardin: no dataCollin: no dataBrazoria: no dataThrockmorton: no dataBastrop: no dataScurry: no dataEctor: no dataLimestone: no dataDenton: no dataRed River: no dataMatagorda: no dataHardeman: no dataPalo Pinto: no dataLive Oak: 4,978 votes · MONICA DE LA CRUZ 86.1% (4,288) · MICHELLE VALLEJO 13.9% (690) · 3,598 net for leaderSherman: no dataUvalde: no dataBailey: no dataCulberson: no dataAtascosa: no dataWilson: 26,762 votes · MONICA DE LA CRUZ 77.7% (20,786) · MICHELLE VALLEJO 22.3% (5,976) · 14,810 net for leaderStarr: no dataDallas: no dataKimble: no dataMcCulloch: no dataCrockett: no dataHill: no dataKent: no dataEl Paso: no dataLoving: no dataDickens: no dataLa Salle: no dataLamb: no dataAustin: no dataHutchinson: no dataVal Verde: no dataSmith: no dataRobertson: no dataGillespie: no dataKing: no dataTom Green: no dataYoakum: no dataSomervell: no dataKenedy: no dataBorden: no dataSan Saba: no dataBurleson: no dataBee: no dataTrinity: no dataCastro: no dataBrewster: no dataGregg: no dataWard: no dataWilbarger: no dataHamilton: no dataStephens: no dataLavaca: no dataBosque: no dataGoliad: no dataRoberts: no dataCallahan: no dataRains: no dataMorris: no dataLampasas: no dataUpshur: no dataWheeler: no dataSan Patricio: no dataMoore: no dataWebb: no dataBlanco: no dataNewton: no dataHockley: no dataPanola: no dataAnderson: no dataCameron: no dataMontgomery: no dataLlano: no dataMason: no dataTaylor: no dataHartley: no dataJim Wells: 12,713 votes · MONICA DE LA CRUZ 56.6% (7,192) · MICHELLE VALLEJO 43.4% (5,521) · 1,671 net for leaderZapata: no dataTravis: no dataHoward: no dataEl PasoAmarilloLubbockOdessaSan AngeloDallasTylerAustinHoustonSan AntonioCorpus ChristiMcAllen
Hue = county leader · Saturation = √(net margin / 90th-pctile county margin), floored
Noted (7)
  • Landslide6.2
    WILSON
    MONICA DE LA CRUZ won by +55.3pp vs statewide +14.2pp
  • Landslide3.8
    LIVE OAK
    MONICA DE LA CRUZ won by +72.3pp vs statewide +14.2pp
  • Underperform3.4
    HIDALGO
    MONICA DE LA CRUZ's margin -2.9pp vs statewide +14.2pp
  • Landslide2.9
    KARNES
    MONICA DE LA CRUZ won by +59.1pp vs statewide +14.2pp
  • Swing outlier2.5
    GUADALUPE
    MONICA DE LA CRUZ shifted -3.9pp early→E-day vs +1.1pp statewide (2.1σ outlier)
  • Underperform1.5
    BROOKS
    MONICA DE LA CRUZ's margin -13.6pp vs statewide +14.2pp
  • Mid-race flip0.5
    HIDALGO
    MICHELLE VALLEJO led early (52.1%); MONICA DE LA CRUZ won E-day (50.5%)

County results — early vs Election Day

  • BROOKS2,272 total
    CRUZEarly 648 · E-day 334982
    VALLEJOEarly 914 · E-day 3761,290
  • GUADALUPE31,176 total
    CRUZEarly 17,642 · E-day 4,52622,168
    VALLEJOEarly 6,881 · E-day 2,1279,008
  • HIDALGO140,909 total
    CRUZEarly 51,360 · E-day 17,08368,443
    VALLEJOEarly 55,754 · E-day 16,71272,466
  • JIM WELLS12,713 total
    CRUZEarly 5,132 · E-day 2,0607,192
    VALLEJOEarly 3,998 · E-day 1,5235,521
  • KARNES4,959 total
    CRUZEarly 2,710 · E-day 1,2353,945
    VALLEJOEarly 656 · E-day 3581,014
  • LIVE OAK4,978 total
    CRUZEarly 3,056 · E-day 1,2324,288
    VALLEJOEarly 465 · E-day 225690
  • WILSON26,762 total
    CRUZEarly 17,071 · E-day 3,71520,786
    VALLEJOEarly 4,856 · E-day 1,1205,976